We probably will , but not in the way anybody is going to like. When a lot of people no longer have the discretionary funds for airplanes, prices will come down. It will be a reversal; from a lot of money chasing few airplanes for sale to a lot of airplanes for sale with little money to buy them.

Edit: Anybody contemplating selling their plane would do well to sell it now. Anybody contemplating buying a plane would do well to wait in my opinion.

It’s crazy.

I don’t even know what to think.

Talked to our Pilatus rep today. PC-12NGX… you can buy a new one and take delivery in the summer of 2025!

If I/we can discipline ourselves to stay on the subject of airplane shortages, or close to there, I would like to continue to participate.

Each day, each of us, has exposures to information touching our lives. These individual experiences may have no real connection to each other, they may not be orderly, or of statistical sampling amount, but from each, we draw conclusions.

Sometimes, the inputs, contradict each other. I have several "experiences" from the last two weeks. I don't know what to think.

On, Sunday, February 6, I flew to D.C. in the Baron. The time was late morning into early afternoon. Returned on Saturday. I took two routes, north of Appalachians going, south returning. ADSB showed fairly light GA traffic both ways in spite of good VFR both routes. Controllers were working large areas, mostly turboprops and jets.

KHEF was inundated with jets and turboprops, mostly time share and charter.

Building activity in the D.C. area has always been busy and has not slowed in the least.

This week at home, went to building supply and paint store. They have never been busier and prices never higher. One decorator told me she had a flooring supplier increase the price on one product by 150% in one week.

Diana Krall's concert in Memphis, rescheduled at first from two weeks ago, now cancelled.

Ole Miss baseball tickets almost unattainable on high end. I've got mine.

More requests for commercial rental space than I have seen in years.

Every residential rental space in the area full with people begging for units. I have 30 acres of prime multi-family land absolutely ready to build. I figure the cost of doing so is double what the rents would justify.

Had several calls on 180 and it isn't even for sale.

Checked the TAP and Controller ads and every twin I looked at last year is still for sale.

Gas prices at local quick stops up 30 cents in ten days.

Sunday morning at the grocery store, beef, chicken and pork, dirt cheap, even down from a few months ago.

Ran into a banker yesterday who does lots of ag loans. Input costs for farmer's up 30% from last year. I bought two tons of bulk fertilizer three weeks ago: $800 a ton, twice my last purchase a year or so ago. Interest rates up 60 basis points in last couple of months or so. Still ridiculously low.

If you can make sense of all this, be my guests. I surely can't.

Jg

Hey Jg,

Those twins have been on Controller for months. Most, if not all, of the quality airplanes are now changing hands word of mouth.

One of my properties in Florida sold before it ever hit MLS.

I'm starting to think there is an "underground" churn of not just airplanes, but cars, properties and other premium items, and the public sales spots are simply where stuff gets parked. Not exactly a black market, but you definitely have to be tuned into the local scene and have "cred" to have access.

Best,
Rich

Make sense of it? Sure, A lot of jets and turbo props, and not many smaller piston planes is a symptom of government's targeting the middle class with their policies that have hit the poor and middle class the hardest while the more affluent can weather these policies better. The canary in the coal mine is the lower end of GA, and what ever health it appears to have now, it can accelerate to the downside quickly in a recession.

Some high revenue businesses are doing well, but many small businesses are crying for relief from the government's policies that are driving them out of business. It's so sad to see a family business fail after years in business because the government has totally FU'd the economy. Turning off the oil production, paying people not to work, and draconian Covid lockdowns way beyond what might have been effective plus interest rates that were too low for too long have done the trick.

No one will be immune from the failures of this government if we go into a deep recession; it will just affect the upper class who depend on a healthy economy last. Some analysts are calling for a recession the second half of this year triggered by rising interest rates, with a soft landing unlikely.

Aviation has always been the first to go and the last to recover.

The bottom half of GA is starting to unravel and will trickle upward.

2023 will not be good for GA. IMPO.

Some of it must be from increased demand from the younger crowd. I see a big interest in back country flying here in the south west, and nearly all of them are from a younger crowd. I think the demand is driven by more than just a bunch of money pumped into the economy supposedly for COVID relief, but with little to no focus on people who really needed it (the shotgun approach). Somebody mentioned the basic med as another driver. Maybe it's not all hot air.

I think YouTube is driving the interest in back country flying amongst the younger set, but it isn’t huge. I am still waiting for someone who truly believes piston GA is booming to explain to me why that isn’t translating into higher avgas sales.

The all-over-the-map guesswork in this thread is fascinating to watch. At least this means someone may be right (like the broken clock is right twice a day). It is remarkable how some folks can be so absolutely sure of themselves.

Funny how that works for a broken clock, but not always for our government leadership. Sorry! I couldn't resist.

It seems to often apply across the board in government.

Curious what you are seeing with regard to the bottom half? There have been some junkers moving. I can see that some of the exotic old "one-off" airplanes are going to have a hard time and project planes are going to suffer due to the inability to get any parts or anyone to work on them. I still don't get the Cirrus craziness. I would laugh at some of the prices of used Cirri but they are actually selling....crazy town

I hear you..., on the other hand, the GA manufacturers are still busting at the seams. Sold out for 2022, and for some models 2023. No bubble lasts forever. At the same time, not sure when or how abruptly it will end.

Upper end may stay strong for a while. Folks in the socio-economic stratospheres have discovered or re-discovered GA and do not appear to be in a hurry to head back to Commercial. Charters, fractionals, full ownership all going full steam

We will see... no bets here on timing.

Is there an underground for Honda Generators? I only need one!

Curious what you are seeing with regard to the bottom half? There have been some junkers moving. I can see that some of the exotic old "one-off" airplanes are going to have a hard time and project planes are going to suffer due to the inability to get any parts or anyone to work on them. I still don't get the Cirrus craziness. I would laugh at some of the prices of used Cirri but they are actually selling....crazy town

Anecdotally, SR22 G2s now seem to be in the 350-400 range and I swear that used to buy you a G1000-equipped G3. No idea what they're actually selling for and I'm going off memory on previous G3 prices.