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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 13:07 
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Yes, but it’s the 21st century, do we really need direct visual observation to fly the plane? (Spoiler alert: No, we don’t)

As a pilot I’d like some nice windows to look out of, but for the forward view I’d be just fine with an image from a camera overlaid with a HUD. If the display goes tango uniform I can make like Lindbergh and slip it to short final and land.


I strongly disagree.
Yes, we do need direct visual observation. Or let me rephrase, considering how average I am, I'm not good enough to fly without peripheral vision, for starters. And my eyes are very good at seeing stuff that would need a very high resolution camera.

The level of redundancy that would be needed for "virtual" direct vision would be quite costly (and heavy). It's also going to be even more costly when they start certifying perfectly calibrated screens. Many issues with parallax, with FOV, with failure modes.
A few days ago the wind was 35g45, quite a bit of xwind. What do you do if that happens to be on the side where the screen failed?

On top of that, if you want to add HUD/flir info, that means you need to control latency, you also need a LOT more failure modes: if your present-day HUD crashes, that's ok, you can look through. If your overimposed HUD crashes and is now a dark block on a screen, that's a big issue.

Oh and of course there is the very simple issue of a bird strike spilling blood all over the cam, or those mosquitoes....

They can always copy Concorde, that was a brilliant and gorgeous solution.

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 13:26 
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Username Protected wrote:
Yes, but it’s the 21st century, do we really need direct visual observation to fly the plane? (Spoiler alert: No, we don’t)

As a pilot I’d like some nice windows to look out of, but for the forward view I’d be just fine with an image from a camera overlaid with a HUD. If the display goes tango uniform I can make like Lindbergh and slip it to short final and land.


I strongly disagree.
Yes, we do need direct visual observation. Or let me rephrase, considering how average I am, I'm not good enough to fly without peripheral vision, for starters. And my eyes are very good at seeing stuff that would need a very high resolution camera.

The level of redundancy that would be needed for "virtual" direct vision would be quite costly (and heavy). It's also going to be even more costly when they start certifying perfectly calibrated screens. Many issues with parallax, with FOV, with failure modes.
A few days ago the wind was 35g45, quite a bit of xwind. What do you do if that happens to be on the side where the screen failed?

On top of that, if you want to add HUD/flir info, that means you need to control latency, you also need a LOT more failure modes: if your present-day HUD crashes, that's ok, you can look through. If your overimposed HUD crashes and is now a dark block on a screen, that's a big issue.

Oh and of course there is the very simple issue of a bird strike spilling blood all over the cam, or those mosquitoes....

They can always copy Concorde, that was a brilliant and gorgeous solution.


Fabien's correct in that the closest comparison here on a blind landing is the Concorde who decided it would be best to incorporate a mechanism that allows the forward fuselage to be canted downward for landings to enable reasonable forward visibility. The reasons for this on the Concorde was for reasons that don't translate to the Celera, having to do with the AOA required on a highly swept delta wing for reasonable landing speeds. The Celera doesn't have this issue but both a/c have issues with forward visibility during landing. Can you imagine the cost and complication of doing that in this class of aircraft??

Yes that was decades ago where a 'virtual' sight projection simply wasn't possible. Even with all the modern developments, I'm not keen on flying an airplane where I have to look at a screen during the most complex and critical phase of flight. No thank you. Hopefully they figure something else out that's safe and reasonable.

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 13:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
Did I read correctly….this is powered by a single 12 cylinder diesel PISTON engine and will sell for upwards of 4 million?



Well, there's this, if it proves out:

Quote:
The Celera 500L is expected to sell for between $4.5 million and $5 million, about the same cost as the popular seven-passenger HondaJet. But the Honda has almost triple the operating cost.


The RED engine is actually pretty darn interesting, and it offers some competitive advantages vs. turbines, especially with fuel economy. I've looked into the available info on the engine, and it competes well vs. turbines in the same power range. It is also a clean-sheet engine, not an automotive-derived conversion.


https://red-aircraft.com


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 13:59 
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I admit that I know almost nothing about the RED engine. According to their website, they've been certified with the EASA since 2014. If that's the case, why aren't there any airframes that have been certified using this powerplant??

"RED aircraft GmbH holds design organization approval (DOA) from EASA since 2014."

https://red-aircraft.com/

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 14:18 
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Username Protected wrote:
Did I read correctly….this is powered by a single 12 cylinder diesel PISTON engine and will sell for upwards of 4 million?

Otto is a dreamer with little chance of getting this plane certified and successful…I.E. profitable.

We NEED dreamers though…
Especially dreamers with money, passion and commitment.

Yeah Otto!

She is missN a forward wing though…jus sayN


Don’t forget about the triple turbo setup.

This plane would be great if it could magically be at 50,000 ft and not take so long to get up there, but it can’t.


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 19:48 
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The cool thing with diesel engines is that their extra weight doesn't matter at longer range, because the lower fuel consumption starts to give them an advantage after about 5hrs. A gas engine+fuel, will weigh more than a diesel engine+fuel - it skews more and more in favor of diesel the longer you're airborne.

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 20:00 
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Username Protected wrote:
The cool thing with diesel engines is that their extra weight doesn't matter at longer range, because the lower fuel consumption starts to give them an advantage after about 5hrs. A gas engine+fuel, will weigh more than a diesel engine+fuel - it skews more and more in favor of diesel the longer you're airborne.


I thought that at those altitudes (and temps) the fuel consumption of an efficient turboprop was similar to a diesel, or at least very close. A 12 cylinder diesel with three turbos and associated cooling drag would need to be a good amount more efficient to make up for the weight, size, and drag. I’d think there is many hundreds of pounds of fuel that a turboprop could carry and still be at the same weight.


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 20:14 
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Username Protected wrote:

I thought that at those altitudes (and temps) the fuel consumption of an efficient turboprop was similar to a diesel, or at least very close. A 12 cylinder diesel with three turbos and associated cooling drag would need to be a good amount more efficient to make up for the weight, size, and drag. I’d think there is many hundreds of pounds of fuel that a turboprop could carry and still be at the same weight.


Maybe at a delta up high the difference becomes smaller and smaller, but I don't think you can escape SFC, no matter what altitude. But I'm sure smarter guys than me will have the correct answer.

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Last edited on 09 Oct 2021, 20:21, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 20:15 
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Username Protected wrote:
The cool thing with diesel engines is that their extra weight doesn't matter at longer range, because the lower fuel consumption starts to give them an advantage after about 5hrs. A gas engine+fuel, will weigh more than a diesel engine+fuel - it skews more and more in favor of diesel the longer you're airborne.


I thought that at those altitudes (and temps) the fuel consumption of an efficient turboprop was similar to a diesel, or at least very close. A 12 cylinder diesel with three turbos and associated cooling drag would need to be a good amount more efficient to make up for the weight, size, and drag. I’d think there is many hundreds of pounds of fuel that a turboprop could carry and still be at the same weight.


Except that that is many hundreds of pounds of fuel the turboprop owner would have to pay for on each and every flight.

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 09 Oct 2021, 21:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
I strongly disagree.
Yes, we do need direct visual observation. Or let me rephrase, considering how average I am, I'm not good enough to fly without peripheral vision, for starters. And my eyes are very good at seeing stuff that would need a very high resolution camera.

The level of redundancy that would be needed for "virtual" direct vision would be quite costly (and heavy). It's also going to be even more costly when they start certifying perfectly calibrated screens. Many issues with parallax, with FOV, with failure modes.
A few days ago the wind was 35g45, quite a bit of xwind. What do you do if that happens to be on the side where the screen failed?

On top of that, if you want to add HUD/flir info, that means you need to control latency, you also need a LOT more failure modes: if your present-day HUD crashes, that's ok, you can look through. If your overimposed HUD crashes and is now a dark block on a screen, that's a big issue.

Oh and of course there is the very simple issue of a bird strike spilling blood all over the cam, or those mosquitoes....

They can always copy Concorde, that was a brilliant and gorgeous solution.


You do realize military drone pilots land them every day without direct observation, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2021, 00:19 
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Username Protected wrote:
Except that that is many hundreds of pounds of fuel the turboprop owner would have to pay for on each and every flight.



Exactly.

Figure a PT6 in the same power range is roughly 300pph in cruise.

The BSFC of the RED at similar power is about 150 pph.

The PT6 will burn 450lbs more fuel to get to the same place at the same speed. That excess fuel burn is about the weight of the RED engine.

That and the cost fuel is a decent argument.


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2021, 03:13 
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Username Protected wrote:
I strongly disagree.
Yes, we do need direct visual observation. Or let me rephrase, considering how average I am, I'm not good enough to fly without peripheral vision, for starters. And my eyes are very good at seeing stuff that would need a very high resolution camera.

The level of redundancy that would be needed for "virtual" direct vision would be quite costly (and heavy). It's also going to be even more costly when they start certifying perfectly calibrated screens. Many issues with parallax, with FOV, with failure modes.
A few days ago the wind was 35g45, quite a bit of xwind. What do you do if that happens to be on the side where the screen failed?

On top of that, if you want to add HUD/flir info, that means you need to control latency, you also need a LOT more failure modes: if your present-day HUD crashes, that's ok, you can look through. If your overimposed HUD crashes and is now a dark block on a screen, that's a big issue.

Oh and of course there is the very simple issue of a bird strike spilling blood all over the cam, or those mosquitoes....

They can always copy Concorde, that was a brilliant and gorgeous solution.


You do realize military drone pilots land them every day without direct observation, right?


Military drones are expendable and not designed to satisfy the same safety standard of a manned aircraft in terms of failure conditions and assurance levels (DAL).
They are operated from military airports through reserved corridors and segregated areas, just to guarantee separation from other traffics, much more than civil airways or a TCAS will do.
While on target, the high altitude is also considered as mitigation to failures potentiallly affecting the overflown areas.
Most of them have 0/0 autoland capabilities, and the pilot inputs are always filtered by the airborne FCC, also to overcome the effects of datalink latency.
Everything can be done, but may be not so easy...

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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2021, 03:43 
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Username Protected wrote:
I strongly disagree.
Yes, we do need direct visual observation. Or let me rephrase, considering how average I am, I'm not good enough to fly without peripheral vision, for starters. And my eyes are very good at seeing stuff that would need a very high resolution camera.

The level of redundancy that would be needed for "virtual" direct vision would be quite costly (and heavy). It's also going to be even more costly when they start certifying perfectly calibrated screens. Many issues with parallax, with FOV, with failure modes.
A few days ago the wind was 35g45, quite a bit of xwind. What do you do if that happens to be on the side where the screen failed?

On top of that, if you want to add HUD/flir info, that means you need to control latency, you also need a LOT more failure modes: if your present-day HUD crashes, that's ok, you can look through. If your overimposed HUD crashes and is now a dark block on a screen, that's a big issue.

Oh and of course there is the very simple issue of a bird strike spilling blood all over the cam, or those mosquitoes....

They can always copy Concorde, that was a brilliant and gorgeous solution.


You do realize military drone pilots land them every day without direct observation, right?



No, because I am an idiot. That's why I did not give any argument in support of my disagreement. :shrug:

Compare the safety record of a drone and airlines. Consider the fact that if you crash a drone, at worst you lose the ordinance. Plus we're not talking about drones here. There are many other issues before you put a screen in front of a pilot, safely.

I was in the sim last week.
On the ejet level d at LBG, the rudders are a tad bit sensitive and there is the faintest of latency. Never had an issue on other sims, nor in the plane, but i still create some PIO after touchdown. Of course partly it's my incompetence, and partly that smallest of latency.
What happens when that's the case on one of the screens? Oh and unreliable airspeed is already a fun checklist, let's have an unreliable screen display too!

BTW, you do realise it's not just military drone pilots who land them every day without direct observation, but civilian too right?
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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2021, 09:57 
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We are moving in the direction of getting the pilot removed. How many years before the FO is not needed? Airplanes would be much safer without human intervention.


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 Post subject: Re: Otto Aviation Celera 500L Flew This Week
PostPosted: 10 Oct 2021, 11:41 
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Username Protected wrote:
Except that that is many hundreds of pounds of fuel the turboprop owner would have to pay for on each and every flight.



Exactly.

Figure a PT6 in the same power range is roughly 300pph in cruise.

The BSFC of the RED at similar power is about 150 pph.

The PT6 will burn 450lbs more fuel to get to the same place at the same speed. That excess fuel burn is about the weight of the RED engine.

That and the cost fuel is a decent argument.


People spending 5 million on an airplane do not care about $180 of fuel difference per flight, and also that is only at altitude. If the climb rate of that airplane is 1,000fpm, which seems optimistic, it would take nearly an hour to get up there. If you are going on a 2 or 3 hour leg, fuel burn could be the same or worse.

As cool as this airplane is, there is no market for it.

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