BeechTalk - BT

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Aug 2019, 23:13

Textron should stamp out matched hole parts, just like Van’s, and let us roll our own.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 05 Aug 2019, 02:34

agree with the sentiment, but stand int front of your bonanza/baron and look down alongside the boot cowl to windshield joint, along the door pillars and back. Note that every piece is formed and curved in 3 dimensions. This is not a plane to be cleco'd together from parts - it begs to be built on a production fixture by skilled and experiences craftsman. Beech themselves can't get it right anymore even though they have the tooling.

When you look at an RV it was designed for this type of assembly. It's successful because it lends itself to being properly built without difficulty. Even so, builders seem to spend more time on the canopy to fuse joint than anything else. the part that had complex curves.

I have to says it but of you wanted to sell a homebuild bonanza kit,. it would be best to do like the south african kit for the comanche clone - reproduce the fuselage shape in carbon fiber.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 05 Aug 2019, 12:22

Username Protected wrote:

While Cirrus does sell more piston singles, they haven't quite reached 50% market share, and Cessna sells more piston singles than people realize.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 05 Aug 2019, 14:09

Username Protected wrote:

Almost solely because of the flight school 172's. Take those out of the picture and it's going to look very bleak for them.

Not sure that selling or not selling pistons dictates what is or is not a bleak future for them. I just can't see pistons moving the needle much.

-Jason

Username Protected · **Posted:** 05 Aug 2019, 14:40

Username Protected wrote:

Almost solely because of the flight school 172's. Take those out of the picture and it's going to look very bleak for them.

a sale is a sale. Why do you care who bought it ?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 05 Aug 2019, 16:05

Username Protected wrote:

Almost solely because of the flight school 172's. Take those out of the picture and it's going to look very bleak for them.

Talk to 100 student pilots and ask them what airplane they hope to be flying in 10 years. I'd bet a frosty adult beverage that 75% or more name an airliner and 85+% name something that burns Jet-A. I just don't believe that there's that many people anymore who dream of flying piston and only piston.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 06 Aug 2019, 20:25

Username Protected wrote:

Almost solely because of the flight school 172's. Take those out of the picture and it's going to look very bleak for them.

Talk to 100 student pilots and ask them what airplane they hope to be flying in 10 years. I'd bet a frosty adult beverage that 75% or more name an airliner and 85+% name something that burns Jet-A. I just don't believe that there's that many people anymore who dream of flying piston and only piston.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 06 Aug 2019, 21:00

Maybe because the baby boomers took it all!

Murray

Username Protected · **Posted:** 06 Aug 2019, 21:50

Username Protected wrote:

Quote:

2018 deliveries of piston singles:

Cirrus: 380
Cessna: 192
Piper: 134
Beechcraft: 15
Total: 1047

2019 has only one quarter reported so far from GAMA:

Cirrus: 66
Piper: 42
Cessna: 35
Beechcraft: 1
Total: 241

I'm obviously missing something.
I've owned three of those brands.
While I've never even sat in a Cirrus, I have no desire to.
There's just something about it that rubs me the wrong way.

If I had the wallet, I'd buy the Beech before any of the others.
The main reason is build quality and engineering.

Brand new in 2019, you'd really pick the Bo? For near a million bucks, you can only get a normally aspirated G36 with a/c (and it would be a rare bird, probably the only one built this year). That plane would be practically identical to the G36 of a decade ago.

Or, for the same money you can get an SR22T with FIKI, Turbo, A/C, CAPS parachute, Perspective Plus, crashworthy seats, 5th generation of evolutionary improvements, etc... Or you can save a hundred grand and get the N/A model SR22 and still be ahead of the Bo on extra features.

I'm not saying either airplane is worthy of a million dollars, but I think it is obvious why new airplane buyers are passing over the Bonanza and buying Cirrus... and I love Bonanzas.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 06 Aug 2019, 23:59

Username Protected wrote:

I'll bet 90% that they won't be able to AFFORD a Jet when they are older.

Maybe even 98%

They will probably be on the equivalent of BT and complaining about parts prices for their 70 year old airplane and electricity costs to charge their airplane (because we won't be allowed to use an internal combustion engine)...

:rofl:

Username Protected · **Posted:** 07 Aug 2019, 09:20

Username Protected wrote:

Talk to 100 student pilots and ask them what airplane they hope to be flying in 10 years. I'd bet a frosty adult beverage that 75% or more name an airliner and 85+% name something that burns Jet-A. I just don't believe that there's that many people anymore who dream of flying piston and only piston.

I'll bet 90% that they won't be able to AFFORD a Jet when they are older.

Maybe even 98%

Username Protected · **Posted:** 08 Aug 2019, 14:36

I did not go to Oshkosh but I did walk into the Cirrus sales, training and service center at TYS a few months ago. When I walked into the massive complex where they are located it was a bit hard to find the store. When I walked in I was immediately approached by a sales person and I expected him to ask me why I was there as I wasn't sure it was open to the public. I was wrong. He immediately ask if he could help me and I said no I just wanted to look around and he said feel free. The store was incredible. There are cabinets filled with interior color samples, fabrics, throttle knob colors in pullout drawers (you can custom design almost every part of the interior) and rooms where you can go sit to design your new plane. It looked like a really high end car dealership without the sleaze. I was then approached by a nice sales lady who ask me if I was interested in a Cirrus and I said yes but I could never afford one. She still continued to talked to me asking if I would like to schedule a demo ride. I almost took her up on it but did not want to jerk her chain, but it was clear my ability to buy one did not seem to matter. If I had the money this is the only new aircraft I would buy and I bet the experience is awesome. They actually act like you are buying a 1 mil product and treat you accordingly.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 09 Aug 2019, 14:52

Username Protected wrote:

Of course, in the 60's - 80's the young pilots didn't have a listing of over 3,000 piston singles on controller at a fraction of the cost of new. Part of the challenge for these manufacturers is that you have a high number of high quality aircraft available for less than an engine would cost them. Why do I fly a Mustang? Because I bought one that was 6 years old for HALF of what it cost new. Hard to compete with that. The number of aircraft produced greatly exceeds demand at this point for the classic airframes.

Cirrus changed the game by integrating technology (glass, chute, composite, etc), style (two big doors, lots of visibility), lower op ex (fixed gear, easy maintenance), etc. And even they were a week away from bankruptcy until the Chinese stepped in...

Make no mistake about it, GA manufacturing on the light side is a brutal business. I don't think any of us that run businesses would trade. Textron will have to make some tough decisions, yes. At the end of the day, you have to make money. How long would I allow the sales of Citations to carry the water for the Baron line? Dunno.

BUT - you can make an argument that a guy who starts in a 172, rents a 182, buys a Commander, then a Mooney, then to a Cirrus, then to a Bonanza, then to a Mirage, then to a Meridian may ultimately end up in a Citation because he was comfortable with the Cessna experience way back when. I would know... The job of the CEO is to see beyond the income statement for a Bonanza or a 172 and view it in a broader context.

Barons aren't made to sell Barons. Barons are made to sell King Airs.

You can make the argument but not many are buying. The economics of flying and aircraft ownership continue to make this more and more of an elite hobby/sport. The only thing that has dropped is the price of fuel recently. Icon just cut it's workforce 40% this week. I bet there is more bad news than they are admitting. I suspect the CFO's/Lenders/Investors will be taking a close look at the Beech piston line, Mooney, Icon and all the other marginal sellers for viability/survival. They have got to be bleeding badly. The economics of low volume just don't work unless they have a unique product that can command premium prices above all other competing planes.

https://www.flyingmag.com/icon-cuts-workforce-40-percent/

Username Protected · **Posted:** 09 Aug 2019, 15:23

Other than Cirrus and trainers the rest are hanging on shoestrings.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 09 Aug 2019, 15:43

Username Protected wrote:

They won't be buying, they will be getting paid to fly it for an airline or fractional company.

That was my point exactly. Those who want to fly for the joy of flying are dwindling. There can be a comeback, but I think it will require a radical change in the industry. Something akin to what we're seeing with all these new designs that look like overgrown drones and the rise of electric propulsion. For a small segment of personal aviation to survive, all us petrol-burning geezers will have to embrace it and welcome the new breed into the fold. Yeah... that'll happen.

Cirrus vs Beech at Oshkosh.