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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 21 Feb 2019, 07:33 
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Even ugly people need lovin', too! Maybe it looks like a Shorts gussied up for prom, but I think the Sky Courier is gorgeous!


It's okay. You probably liked the Pontiac Aztec too.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 16:30 
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Much of the Denali's appeal rests on the promise of lower fuel burn and cheaper DOC from GE's new engine. If it works out, it seems like a natural move for someone to STC a GE engine onto a PC-12. Jim A, are you listening?


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 17:19 
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I love the utlility of the PC12, but the avionics are just kludgy, the cockpit is very busy


Once you learn the Apex it's actually very intuitive and powerful. Having used both extensively, in many ways I like it better than Garmin. My main complaint is no ADSB-IN.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 17:24 
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Pilatus owns the market and Textron will have a ton of work to even match them. Plus textron is competing which their own King Air. Makes no sense unless the KA days are numbered.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 17:52 
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Pilatus owns the market and Textron will have a ton of work to even match them. Plus textron is competing which their own King Air. Makes no sense unless the KA days are numbered.


Makes a lot of sense... Textron is late to the game and the market has indicated that there is robust demand for SETPs. Pilatus does dominate the market, but unless there is a compelling reason for a monopoly, people like alternatives, and if Textron executes in a reasonable fashion, they will likely take share.

If they don't provide one, someone else can, is and will.

However there are not a lot of great alternatives for twin turboprops. And while SETPs have certainly gained ground, there will always be folks who prefer two power plants over one.
If that were not true, then no one would be buying King Airs and everyone would have switched over to Pilatus & TBM. Of course a bit of an overstatement, but directionally accurate.

Textron is at least as likely to take share from Pilatus as they are to cannibalize King Air sales. Gotta believe that net net, they will come out ahead if they can provide an alternative. If current King Air customers wanted an SETP they can get one. So while it may cannibalize a bit, not sure that it sounds the death knell, from a demand perspective for the King Air.

It is far riskier for Textron to ignore the SETP market than it is for them to enter the SETP market.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 18:47 
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I don't know... the Denali isn't a single engine King Air... it's a Citation turboprop.

It will all depend on reality, if the Denali is what I think it will be, I am betting Pilatus suffers.

Pilatus (to it's credit) is a sales driven organization. "Sell it and we'll build it"

Textron is a production driven organization. "Build it and we'll sell it."

In my previous life I've worked for both types... no doubt that when it comes to volume, the production driven model wins.

The Pilatus is a great airplane, but like it's twin engine counterpart the vulnerable King Air, it is a very dated design.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 18:48 
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there will always be folks who prefer two power plants over one.
If that were not true, then no one would be buying King Airs and everyone would have switched over to Pilatus & TBM. Of course a bit of an overstatement, but directionally accurate.

If this were true Textron would be putting money into upgrading the KA line instead of building the Denali.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 18:57 
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If this were true Textron would be putting money into upgrading the KA line

What do you think needs to be updated in the King Air line?

You could start with a clean sheet and build a new twin cabin class business turboprop from the ground up.

It would probably end up not a lot different than what they got. So why dump all that money into it for marginal gains?

Better to open a new market.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 19:22 
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You could start with a clean sheet and build a new twin cabin class business turboprop from the ground up.

Yes. Hopefully they could get rid of the windshield wipers while they're at it too.

Building a "me too" SETP isn't "opening a new market". Building a faster, better, 21st century KA from the ground up is "opening a new market". Look what Blackhawk has done to the 350 getting 330 TAS+. Redesign the airframe and you could get a lot more speed out of it, nice airstair, cargo door, trailing link gear, there's so much you could do. That would get the attention of both PC12 buyers and Midsize jet buyers and it's something Pilatus and Cirrus don't have and will never have.

The Denali as now on paper is a big yawn. When I see a King Air it I feel like I'm looking at a '57 Chevy at a classic car show.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 19:26 
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Building a "me too" SETP isn't "opening a new market".

It does for Textron.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 12 Mar 2019, 22:42 
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Cessna has a lot of development going on with the SkyCourier and the Hemisphere. The SkyCourier is a open market with a order backlog. The Latitude is also selling well.

Point is, the Denali certainly isn't low hanging fruit for Textron. It will require a lot of investment for a market that already has a strong player. Not to mention the issues going on at GE right now. I think it will be several years before we see the Denali hit the market, if ever.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 13 Mar 2019, 10:07 
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Point is, the Denali certainly isn't low hanging fruit for Textron. It will require a lot of investment for a market that already has a strong player. Not to mention the issues going on at GE right now. I think it will be several years before we see the Denali hit the market, if ever.

+1. I do not think it will be easy for Textron to compete in the SETP space as there are too many in it. Pilatus delivered 83 PC12's last year. So if Textron took half of that it's only 40 airplanes and they won't take half.

Textron has a great following with the KA line. If I were Textron I'd redesign the 350 into a midsize jet and Pilatus killer. I'd capitalize on marketing 2 engines against Pilatus blah blah. I'd use the Avanti as inspiration. They could take back loads of market share that they've lost. Then maybe build a smaller version.

Textron isn't competing. Textron is playing Defense.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 13 Mar 2019, 10:15 
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Textron is having the same knee jerk reaction regarding SETP that they had when they bought Colombia to get into the “Cirrus type” market.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 13 Mar 2019, 10:23 
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Textron is having the same knee jerk reaction regarding SETP that they had when they bought Colombia to get into the “Cirrus type” market.

This is what happens at large publicly traded companies Nobody wants to stick their neck on the line to build something amazing. Management wants conservative and "easy" and to have a scapegoat IF it doesn't work out.

The Denali, if it's ever delivered will be DOA. Pilatus already has a game changer SETP built and ready. They're just waiting for the right time to let it drop.


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 Post subject: Re: Cessna Denali - First Impressions
PostPosted: 13 Mar 2019, 10:53 
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I never understood building a plane with nearly identical specs to the PC12. Textron is in a difficult position. I'm sure the KA line has lots of room for aerodynamic improvements now with computer modeling available vs. the slide rules it was designed with, but the changes are probably so vast they are likely looking at a new certification. If you're going to certify a new turboprop, do you make it a twin or single? Making it a twin will kill your KA gravy train, but a single has some stiff competition.


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