Username Protected wrote:
Rich,
I thought the same thing up until Sun & Fun last year.
I personally love my Bonanza AND my J-3. However, there is a surpising demand in the LSA arena... many of which are former Standard Category pilots. Sad as it may seem to some, I think LSA's are here to stay and the current economy is pointing us further in that direction. $100K - $150K for a nice shiney new bird versis $400cK for a C172 is a major driver. Owner maintenance with a 3 week course (LSRM) another. No 3rd class medical another. It adds up for the Babby Boomers who are reaching retirement with some sadly depleated 401K's.
I'm with you; I like a "real" certified airplane... as opposed to an ASTM standard. How that all shakes out in the long term is yet to be determined. As a structural engineer with over 20 years in aerospace, I can tell you I'm not convinced what I'm seeing out there is by any means equal in design or durability.
I like certified IFR equipment and capability. LSA's want to be there; many have some nice experimental like equipment; and yes, autopilots. I expect to see some folks get in trouble flying IMC, non certified, not ready for prime time. I think the urge is going to be too great. Expect to see the FAA respond accordingly.
As for me, I'd rather buy a used A36 for $150K than a Chez two seater any day. Quality is quality and there is no comparison. Unfortunately, a huge majority of our flying brotherhood are faced with some realities financially and otherwise. I'm lucky I'm able and willing to do alot of my own maintenance and care for my bird myself. For me, owning an airplane is more than simple economics. Flying is a passion; it 's worth it to me to put forth a little extra effort to continue what I love.
For many attempting to enter aviation today, I don't think that's the case. LSA's are gaining popularity for the flight schools, both for lower aircraft rental costs and because they're associated with the lower costs airman certificates.
What this all means for the future of Standard Category aircraft, parts costs, and general operating costs for us who fly "aging aircraft" is a little uncertain, and somewhat disconcerting. Obviously, our numbetrs are shrinking and along with that comes some realities in our overall market segment (read price increases, parts availibility).
Looks like our only choice is to continue to support organizations like ABS and AOPA, and of course
Beech Talk.
Of course, I'm still waiting for HB to come out with a 4 place, 170 knot, "LSA killer" priced at $50K...
Dave C
Hi Dave,
That's a fantastic analysis, and I agree for the most part.
The problem still comes down to the cost of aircraft, whether certified by the FAA or the ATSM.
I agree Rich. I didn't mean to necessarly bust ATSM, and I should have stated that a little more clearly. I think the standard is fine. It's my understanding though that the manufacturers are pretty much on their own right now as far as certifying that they meet the standard. There is some oversight, but LSA purposely approaches the certification process differently. From what I'm seeing, however, I think the level of effort and validity of "flight worthiness" varies significantly from guys like Cessna to some of the little guys. There have been a few crashes caused by design insufficiency, flutter, etc. I'm simply stating I think you're going to see that tighten up eventually. Where the balance lies between Standard Category certification at supposedly a couple million bucks and the LSA movement is hard to say. I applaud AOPA and EAA's efforts, though. The problem comes is there is a major discontinuity between the capability of a LSA and a certified aircraft...not ACTUAL capability, but an artificial barrier.
I think LSAs for primary training is great. Heck, even use them for IFR training, even if you can't actually fly them IFR.
But once you move out of the primary training, 2 person VFR arena, you have to make the jump to either a certified aircraft, or something like an RV-10. If you take used aircraft out of the equation for a moment, that means going from $120k to north of $400k in a heartbeat.
Good point and I agree.I would very much support a re-worked "personal" aircraft category, where more owner maintenance was possible, and perhaps some lower costs, but the LSA was billed as the same kind of thing, and all of the prices immediately jumped to the "premium" level, which leads me to believe that any "certified" aircraft (whether FAA/ATSM/whatever) at reasonable costs is vaporware.
Unfortunately, that seems to be the game. 
Best,
Rich
