You remind me of my jealous, ex-girlfriend.

We need to sort out tax accounting so we can figure out how to maximize deductions for a new solar install. We need the solar and whole house battery backup solution so that we can stay online without relying on an unreliable grid. We need to stay online so that we can track inventory levels.

This thread seems completely on topic to me.

Can we start talking about Piaggios again ?

Yes, but the inventory of P136's is REALLY low!

Almost afraid to bring this up, but the aircraft inventory seems to be really high for most airframes right now. I do expect with the passing of the recent tax bill that we will see a very active market in the second half of the year. What is everyone else’s thoughts?

I’m not selling or buying but I was with a pilot friend yesterday who heard from a reputable broker that the market is very weak right now. We are speaking pistons - nothing that burns Jet A. Might explain your observation that inventory seems high at this time. Whether or not the market improves later in the year seems logical but who the heck really knows?

I’ve been watching Mustangs, and there have been several aircraft declare “price improvements” in the past couple of months. But by my analysis they were overpriced to begin with… the well priced ones still sell.

Things have been really soft in the turbine market as well. The main difference is that weak sales is a double-edged sword, people reluctant to sell, mean less available airplanes. We’re also seeing a lot of very reluctant sellers.

From my perspective in the piston market trends have continued and some shortages have gotten worse.

Training market

-legacy singles like Lycoming powered 172s and tapered wing Cherokees have seen a slight decline recently but I see it as a normal fluctuation. The foreign training market is still thriving and the supply is getting used up faster than it is being replenished. I think that market will stay stable or become stronger.

-legacy twins such as Piper 44s, 34s, BE76s, Travel Airs and Apaches. The market is still strong as these planes are being used up quickly for multi training even though they are all getting more costly to support. There are just not any viable alternatives. Continental powered Barons and 310s don’t hold up as well in training environments and Aztecs burn too much fuel to be competitive. There is still a massive price gap in acquisition costs on later generation twin trainers.

Personal planes

-fixed gear singles such as 182s, six cylinder Cherokees. The market is still strong partly due to downsizing for age related insurance issues. Again, with a diminishing supply I expect little change.

-later model retractable high performance singles such as Bonanzas, Comanches, 210s. Off a little and seem to fluctuate more with the economy. I see it as remaining relatively flat due to supply decline. Many owners still doing very expensive upgrades that will not add near as much value as the costs.

-light twins such as Barons, Aerostars, 310s, Aztecs Twin Commanders etc. the market is off more than other categories. Possibly due to huge increases in engine amortizations x 2. Aerostars are still in a category by themselves and due to passionate product loyalty are holding their own better than Barons. Later prime Aztec examples made a big jump when a few with major panel and other upgrades were sold for 2 or 3 times previous value. I expect them to stay strong as all the lower end ones will get used up by flight schools or go to Nassau to die. They will continue to be a safe bet for upgrading and doing engine overhauls. The 310 market except the R model is continuing to decline. Corrosion is playing a role. Twin Commanders except the non geared ones are dead. Straight 500s, 500A/B/S and U are still pretty strong due to rarity but market is small.

-Cabin class twins such as Piper PA31s, 400 series Cessnas and Beechcraft Dukes. Market has continued to decline. Exceptions are 414As and 421Cs due to their capabilities. All others are frequently being parted out when engines are timed out and panel has not had a major upgrade.

Now that is what we call an informed, insightful report on the factors affecting inventory and pricing…

My analysis I will admit is just observational. No strong analysis done. Well maintained piston airplanes will always sell and for a good price. A lot of people are trying to offload their junk. Controller is filled with it. The key is finding a well maintained aircraft for a decent price. There are good airplanes out there on controller that are wildly overpriced, and they will just sit there in all likelihood.

I sold three 501s this week. I think the little space that I play in is doing great this year. There’s nothing to buy that’s publicly advertised.

I had a six month journey to find a personal A36 that Met my criteria and there’s still a lot of little projects I have to do to make it perfect. I certainly don’t feel like I got a great deal either.

As all of these airplanes get burned up and they really aren’t new replacement airplanes that are getting built, I predict increased scarcity and higher prices on quality airplanes.

I agree. I watch the salvage sale sites and the fleet is constantly declining from wrecks and storms at an increasing rate. We lost hundreds of aircraft last hurricane season not to mention the tornadoes. There were 53 planes underwater at the Hendersonville Airport alone where I have a hangar and another 35 or so at nearby Marion. There were much larger numbers in Florida. I remember recovering 300 plus planes at Tamiami after Andrew. Something like that is likely to happen again.

When the dollar weakens Europeans, Africans and South Americans deplete the fleet. If that happens again soon like many are predicting there could be large amounts exported again. I remember the late eighties when I containerized and shipped 40 planes to Europe over a 2 year period. They tend to cherry pick the best ones.

Even though general aviation is shrinking it seems that the fleet is shrinking a bit faster. That should keep the prices up on the good examples and encourage people to invest in overhauls and upgrades.

It is becoming more like Europe as many people are finding aviation unaffordable. That trend is getting worse with hangar rent increases, insane engine and prop overhaul cost increases and PE influences on the parts market. It is not so much the purchase prices keeping people from ownership.

Before you go all doom and gloom, you should check the numbers.

Per FAA numbers, 2013 had 199,927 aircraft, 2023 had 214,222 aircraft in the GA fleet, a 7.1% increase in 10 years. The GA fleet is NOT shrinking. Whatever losses there have been, the flow of new aircraft has more than replaced it.

Per the FAA, 2013 had 22.9 million GA flight hours, 2023 had 28.6 million GA flight hours, 24.9% increase. Planes are getting flown more and more.

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviat ... ion/cy2023

Airplane values are up, flying is up, mechanics are busy, upgrades are happening, etc. I see more GA happening than ever before.

I thus question your statement that GA is shrinking.

Mike C.