BeechTalk - BT - Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 12 May 2025, 21:56

Username Protected wrote:

Every aircraft has increased in value over the last 6 years.

Mostly true, but not always:

In February of 2022, you could have bought this 4 year old SF50 for $2.8mm

Attachment:

Screenshot 2025-05-12 171821.jpg

And today, you can buy a 4 year old SF50-G2 or G2+ for.... $2.8mm

But a 2018 SF50 now sells for $1.8mm (decreased $1mm in asking price)

The values have declined. The buying and selling prices in US dollars has increased thanks to inflation.

Year Inflation Rate
2019 2.30%
2020 1.40%
2021 7.00%
2022 6.50%
2023 3.40%
2024 2.9%

Cumulative, that's 25.8% inflation. If you have a desirable aircraft, you may have seen a slight increase in what you could sell it for, or buy an equivalent aircraft today. I know that is true of my G36. But it does not have really any greater value, just a higher price.

In November of 2020, you could have purchased a 2016 G36 for $795,000 (listed on Trade a Plane at that time). Right now, there are 2 2016 G36s for sale on TaP at $850k and $900k each.

I have a theory why a Bonanza holds it's value, but a SF50 does not, but I'd hate to speculate on BeechTalk.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 12 May 2025, 23:01

I have to work with what the wayback machine gives me.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 12 May 2025, 23:22

Username Protected wrote:

Thats more than my yearly operating cost total for those 6 years.

The Piaggio has INCREASED in value 1 million in 6 years.

The Piaggio was $800k 6 years ago????

Out of curiosity, what was your TOTAL cost of ownership over the last six years? How much money left your wallet that was related to owning and operating your aircraft?

How much downtime did you have over 6 years?

We're still talking about bananas and potatoes, but I am really curious about the P.180 true costs and uptime. Some of the anecdotal stories on BT aren't encouraging.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 12 May 2025, 23:35

Username Protected wrote:

The real question is what does Cirrus do when they reach market saturation?

Same thing they did last time they saturated the market - sell even more planes.

Here's a complaint about how Cirrus saturated the market with SR22s...in 2014.
/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=95629&p=1217877&hilit=SATURATE+the+market#p1217877

Cirrus was the best selling piston airplane in 2024 - TEN YEARS after "market saturation." Over a third of all piston planes sold in 2024 said "CIRRUS" on the side, and Cirrus doesn't even build a piston twin!

One thing that Cirrus is indisputably good at is finding out what buyers want, and building it.
https://gama.aero/wp-content/uploads/20 ... 9-2025.pdf

Username Protected · **Posted:** 12 May 2025, 23:46

Username Protected wrote:

While I certainly don’t have 6 years worth of experience to go off of I can tell you that most owners including me have an all in hourly cost of around 1400.00 (owner flown), that’s everything in (except cost of capital ). Of course we are blocking 350 knots to the Cirrus 290 knots

That's very impressive. You're running it at basically twice the cost of fuel, which is considerably less than most people would use for a rule of thumb.

These 3 sources all list it at more than twice that total cost per hour, even with cost of capital and pilot salaries removed.
https://www.libertyjet.com/jet-ownershi ... ype=Avanti
https://aviacost.com/aircraftcostcalcul ... vanti-p180
https://www.aircraftcostcalculator.com/ ... 180+Avanti

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 06:38

Username Protected wrote:

While I certainly don’t have 6 years worth of experience to go off of I can tell you that most owners including me have an all in hourly cost of around 1400.00 (owner flown), that’s everything in (except cost of capital ). Of course we are blocking 350 knots to the Cirrus 290 knots

That's very impressive. You're running it at basically twice the cost of fuel, which is considerably less than most people would use for a rule of thumb.

These 3 sources all list it at more than twice that total cost per hour, even with cost of capital and pilot salaries removed.
https://www.libertyjet.com/jet-ownershi ... ype=Avanti
https://aviacost.com/aircraftcostcalcul ... vanti-p180
https://www.aircraftcostcalculator.com/ ... 180+Avanti

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 17:22

Username Protected wrote:

Rich, that is a very insightful post. That puts a ton of the nonsense off-track discussions in these threads into perspective.

I've also been doing some studying about the difference between fear and re-appraisal. When somebody posts something that doesn't match your vision of reality, there are two typical responses:

1) Fear that they might be right, shattering your views, in other words that you might be wrong! That triggers the amygdala into a fight or flight response and a negative emotional result.
2) Reappraisal, which is the alternative to fear. Slowing down the emotional response and recognizing that their might be a possibility to learn something. You have to almost become clinical and observe the data as if you had no vested stake in the outcome, you're just a scientist collecting data.

For whatever reason, maybe we can blame SM, most people today seem to be locked into response 1 - fear and an emotional challenge - You Must Be Wrong, Because If You Are Not Wrong Then I Must Be!

Hey Matt,

This is backed up by my own anecdotal experience.

People who are in an industry see a change that is generally accepted as a "good thing". This good thing benefits almost everyone. Person X rails against it because of reasons A, B and/or C, which are mostly non sequitur. But this person continues to bang away trying to make people believe a square peg fit in a round hole.

Everyone scratches their head about Person X, because nothing they say on the topic makes sense, and in some conditions, even harms the current position. The person argues with everyone in earshot that they're wrong, and they are right.

Well, as it turns out, Person X has some kind of interest that the change affects that overrides all other considerations. In my experience, it is almost always because they have some kind of hustle that would be busted or their cheese gets moved in some kind of way. Maybe it's not even them but affects one of their kids, friends, business associates or even a drinking buddy. Could be anything.

Had he just come out and said "Hey, I make fat cash with my hustle and this change is really going to bust up my program, so while I understand it's good for most, it's bad for me." Everyone would have simply nodded and say "well, we all disagree but we certainly now understand your position and why you are going that way. No harm, no foul."

People don't seem to feel any shame in taking positions that are only good for them, but don't have the fortitude to at least come out and defend what their real position is. They usually try to obfuscate it because they feel people don't like their real position, or they try to bring attention to a less offensive position that is linked to it, and make the drama about that, rather than what their real deal is.

Best,
Rich

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 19:55

I read this S&*T before i go to bed; like a comedy act: watching grown men act like kindergarteners. You cannot make this %#$@ up. MC actually thought we all forgot how he got trampled by JC. God I miss him. No, not you MC. :bow:

Tell you one thing: I would not buy a V if you gave it to me.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 20:37

Username Protected wrote:

I read this S&*T before i go to bed; like a comedy act: watching grown men act like kindergarteners. You cannot make this %#$@ up. MC actually thought we all forgot how he got trampled by JC. God I miss him. No, not you MC. :bow:

Tell you one thing: I would not buy a V if you gave it to me.

If they gave it to you, how could you buy it??? :scratch:

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 23:12

Username Protected wrote:

I read this S&*T before i go to bed; like a comedy act: watching grown men act like kindergarteners. You cannot make this %#$@ up. MC actually thought we all forgot how he got trampled by JC. God I miss him. No, not you MC. :bow:

Tell you one thing: I would not buy a V if you gave it to me.

JC was one of the biggest aviation phonies ever. Arrogance.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 23:19

Username Protected wrote:

I read this S&*T before i go to bed; like a comedy act: watching grown men act like kindergarteners. You cannot make this %#$@ up. MC actually thought we all forgot how he got trampled by JC. God I miss him. No, not you MC. :bow:

Tell you one thing: I would not buy a V if you gave it to me.

JC was one of the biggest aviation phonies ever. Arrogance begging for a smoking hole in the ground.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 23:20

Username Protected wrote:

I read this S&*T before i go to bed; like a comedy act: watching grown men act like kindergarteners. You cannot make this %#$@ up. MC actually thought we all forgot how he got trampled by JC. God I miss him. No, not you MC. :bow:

Tell you one thing: I would not buy a V if you gave it to me.

JC was one of the biggest aviation phonies ever. Arrogance begging for a smoking hole in the ground.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 23:21

Username Protected wrote:

JC was one of the biggest aviation phonies ever. Arrogance begging for a smoking hole in the ground.

Bless your heart.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 13 May 2025, 23:38

Username Protected wrote:

What a crappy thing to say about someone you clearly do not know. Jason could be tedious at times, and he did love to argue, but he is one of the nicest guys I have met through Beechtalk.

Yeah you’re right. I went a bit too far. Edited.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 14 May 2025, 00:34

All good threads come to an end. This one included. Time to shut it down.