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10 Aug 2022, 14:18 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


Stevens Aerospace (Banner)



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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 21 Jun 2022, 11:04 
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Location: KOXC Oxford, CT
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Eric isn't that what you want as a buyer? A market analysis that takes the time to digest the information so that it can be used as reliable "safe" information? I imagine this will even out when the prices do fall, the VREF number will lag initially but since it didn't take into account ALL of the spike it will be fairly representative.


Cody, how does stale data create safety, and how is that relevant to buying anything?


Not stale data, takes out the spikes. If a certain aircraft has a "temporary" value of $400k for a short period of time just because someone buys it @ $400k doesn't mean its a good value. VREF seems to have a dual purpose, protecting banks and advising buyers.

Wouldn't you agree a conservative approach to purchasing an aircraft would be to not pay more than VREF?

Last edited on 21 Jun 2022, 11:14, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 21 Jun 2022, 11:14 
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Username Protected wrote:
Wouldn't you agree a conservative approach to purchasing an aircraft would be to not pay more than VREF?


Nope. I paid $20K over VREF a few years ago. Dumb decision right? Plane was very well sorted and maintained. VREF makes zero adjustments for well maintained airplanes vs. poorly maintained airplanes with the same engine and air frame times. Total maintenance cost over the last three years in a TN A36 has been less than any 3 year period I owned my J model Mooney.

If you pay VREF or below for a plane, but then end up with $10K (or more) in deferred maintenance, you certainly didn't come out ahead. The good planes go quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 21 Jun 2022, 11:32 
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Username Protected wrote:
Not stale data, takes out the spikes. If a certain aircraft has a "temporary" value of $400k for a short period of time just because someone buys it @ $400k doesn't mean its a good value. VREF seems to have a dual purpose, protecting banks and advising buyers.

Wouldn't you agree a conservative approach to purchasing an aircraft would be to not pay more than VREF?


Having out of date data is not the same as smoothing the data.

In the current market, a conservative approach to buying a plane is to sit it out and wait for things to cool off. Anything available below Vref is likely junk, or at least a money pit. In any case, even when it's current, Vref doesn't have enough granularity to do anything other than get you in the ballpark. It's not definitive the way a bluebook is for cars.

But bringing this back to the topic of the thread and Stephen's question... as a seller, I'd want to get the maximum price the market allows for a sale in pretty short order. That means knowing what the current market is like, spikes and all.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 25 Jun 2022, 09:06 
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On back side of the top, and appears to be correcting. Rising interest rates don’t help either.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 25 Jun 2022, 09:22 
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On back side of the top, and appears to be correcting. Rising interest rates don’t help either.



Love the graph - shows the price trends so well. Where did you find it???
Thanks!


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 29 Jun 2022, 12:11 
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Joined: 12/18/09
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Company: Mustang Engineering, L.P.
Location: Katy , TX (KTME)
Aircraft: 1974 Bonanza V35B
Username Protected wrote:


Not state data, takes out the spikes. If a certain aircraft has a "temporary" value of $400k for a short period of time just because someone buys it @ $400k doesn't mean its a good value. VREF seems to have a dual purpose, protecting banks and advising buyers.

Wouldn't you agree a conservative approach to purchasing an aircraft would be to not pay more than VREF?


Hi Cody,

It may be a conservative approach, but it limits you to the offerings priced at or below VREF. In a seller's market, the only airplanes offered below VREF would be those that are compromised in some way or an airplane that its owner needs to unload quickly. Does that sound like the list of selections you want to choose from? VREF used to have a disclaimer (I presume it still does) that market pricing may vary as much as 20 to 30% based on condition.

Regards,

_________________
Gary D'Antoni
ABS Life Member # L27099
1974 V35B - N113TW
Katy, Texas


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