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01 Oct 2022, 13:16 [ UTC - 5; DST ]


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 Post subject: FS: value
PostPosted: 17 Jun 2022, 20:57 
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Joined: 03/05/08
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Location: KPWT
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In comparing the aopa value calculator with ads in controller I see a 30% premium.
Is that a realistic asking price.
I will be selling my Baron later this year.
Thanks for any input


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 17 Jun 2022, 23:29 
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I think you're seeing some escalation in the controller pricing which was driven by limited supply and hyper-demand (not many good aircraft for sale, lots of people wanting to buy during covid and while money was cheap and available).

I don't think it's going to last. I see good aircraft not selling now...prices will come down, IMO, as people's finances get tightened, avgas/Jet-A exceed $8/gal, and the fed gets inflation under control one way or another.

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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 17 Jun 2022, 23:34 
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There might be a thought to sell it now and try to catch the last edge of the sellers market. If it's a really clean plane, and prices right, it will most likely sell.

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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 18 Jun 2022, 04:46 
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I think the value calculator is based on historical data and Controller is "real time" wishful thinking - some realistic, some not.

My impression is that Vref has always lagged - going up and going down.

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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 18 Jun 2022, 11:38 
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I’m ready to buy an E model but not willing to pay the temporary price inflation. I’m patient and will pull the trigger as soon as the market corrects to reasonable values.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 18 Jun 2022, 12:21 
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Are the prices on Vref reasonable, or are they more just a reflection of what folks are currently paying?


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 18 Jun 2022, 22:35 
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Username Protected wrote:
I’m ready to buy an E model but not willing to pay the temporary price inflation. I’m patient and will pull the trigger as soon as the market corrects to reasonable values.


What do you consider reasonable prices? In about 2-3 months I'll be selling an E55 with mid time engines, good avionics, and Garmin ap.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 18 Jun 2022, 23:03 
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Username Protected wrote:
Are the prices on Vref reasonable, or are they more just a reflection of what folks are currently paying?


Josh,

Certainly no expert here, but have used Vref (and others) for decades. I think they used to be fairly accurate in the past, but have noticed they've made it more cumbersome and less encouraging to use their 'free' services thru AOPA.

It seems to me that due to the current GA market, prices of certain aircraft types (based on real or perceived real-time popularity) don't translate well anymore. What I mean by that, is that there has always been market fluctuation based on the economy and the energy sector. Perhaps more importantly, is that the GA fleet is not only aging, but airframes are dropping like flies due to outright accidents, incidents that folks can't get reasonable repairs for, greater parting out of airframes due to lack of certain parts for legacy aircraft, and shift away from certain classes or types.

It is just no longer a simple linear equation with plenty of airframes to choose from. A lot of once mainstream airframes have now become boutique. Planes that were once priced higher than others, or types that were once undesirable for various reasons (particular maintenance or operational headaches), have now become highly sought after primarily because those are all that's left. They're not really building anymore new airframes to speak of... certainly not that the average aircraft owner or small business can reasonably afford or justify. What's left is what we have ~ forever and ever, Amen.

Years ago, no one wanted many geared piston twins, they were a dime a dozen, due to a number of reasons. Now, some have become highly sought after with an almost cult following. Everything has its' day, I suppose. Many popular legacy aircraft have all but been used up, and the ones that remain are priced very high, in many cases in poor condition. Everyone's all excited about Dukes now. For years, you could almost not give those away due to their extreme (for a piston twin) operational costs and questionable performance in balanced field length. When there were other choices en masse, certain airframes got overlooked. Now that some of these airframes are all that's left in quantity, people are taking notice, and learning to live with their limitations and embrace their quirks.

A lot of the Barons, particularly the deiced 55's, got used up in the business of Federal Reserve bank check hauling... circa 1970's thru early 2000's... particularly the B55s. Some of the heavier runs used up the C's and D's. The more expensive later 'E's got spared for the most part, so once again, that's what's left and prices reflect it. There are still quite a few 58's (and they're still being produced ~ barely ~ for about $2m each), but once again, they were the expensive alternative that was more desirable because of the door. They are now being used in the medical supply hauling world. Navajos were more expensive than 402's, so the Navajos have remained while the 402's already got used up... and not just in the U.S. Now the Navajos are becoming scarce, particularly the short body -310... the [relatively] economical one.

Everyone knows what makes an aircraft retain value. We don't need to list that. I will say that as always, it's worth what folks in a certain economy are willing to pay for it based on availability at that particular time. Look what happens in the real estate market in certain segments. Holy cow! If the right buyer shows up looking for exactly what you have, it could totally blow the Vref value out of the water. Depends on the type. Long answer, but that's my $.02 worth after over 50 years of being around it all. ~ ME


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 19 Jun 2022, 10:09 
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Company: Haley European Motors LLC
Location: North Carolina
Aircraft: M35 hopefully
The market prices are definitely discouraging. I've been on the hunt for a nice M35 for a couple of years now. I've been spending more time lately looking in the market and find myself discouraged. Starting to consider a (dare I say it) Comanche... (Please don't boot me out of the club). Guess I'll try a WTB ad here on BT.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 19 Jun 2022, 16:30 
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I think the value of twins will be hurt dramatically by rising fuel prices. I know that I stopped considering them.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 20 Jun 2022, 10:38 
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Joined: 11/18/20
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Location: KOXC Oxford, CT
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Prices will be coming down over the next few months, during the winter there were hardly any aircraft for sale, the number has been steadily increasing along with the prices. Many are now sitting on the market.....I would say good deals will be had by winter....


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 20 Jun 2022, 13:41 
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Location: Albany, NY
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Username Protected wrote:
In comparing the aopa value calculator with ads in controller I see a 30% premium.
Is that a realistic asking price.
I will be selling my Baron later this year.
Thanks for any input


Vref’s info is compiled and published as if it were a book, rather than being frequently updated. They released it in October and the data was a bit stale even then. Now it’s ancient. Maybe they’ll update again before it’s time for you to sell and you’ll have fresh data to work from.

It doesn’t surprise me that planes currently on the market are that much higher than Vref. If it hasn’t been on the market very long, it’s probably a good price.


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 20 Jun 2022, 16:28 
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Location: KOXC Oxford, CT
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Username Protected wrote:
In comparing the aopa value calculator with ads in controller I see a 30% premium.
Is that a realistic asking price.
I will be selling my Baron later this year.
Thanks for any input


Vref’s info is compiled and published as if it were a book, rather than being frequently updated. They released it in October and the data was a bit stale even then. Now it’s ancient. Maybe they’ll update again before it’s time for you to sell and you’ll have fresh data to work from.

It doesn’t surprise me that planes currently on the market are that much higher than Vref. If it hasn’t been on the market very long, it’s probably a good price.


Eric isn't that what you want as a buyer? A market analysis that takes the time to digest the information so that it can be used as reliable "safe" information? I imagine this will even out when the prices do fall, the VREF number will lag initially but since it didn't take into account ALL of the spike it will be fairly representative.

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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 20 Jun 2022, 19:07 
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Username Protected wrote:
Eric isn't that what you want as a buyer? A market analysis that takes the time to digest the information so that it can be used as reliable "safe" information? I imagine this will even out when the prices do fall, the VREF number will lag initially but since it didn't take into account ALL of the spike it will be fairly representative.


Cody, how does stale data create safety, and how is that relevant to buying anything?


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 Post subject: Re: FS: value
PostPosted: 21 Jun 2022, 11:04 
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Joined: 11/18/20
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Location: KOXC Oxford, CT
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Username Protected wrote:
Eric isn't that what you want as a buyer? A market analysis that takes the time to digest the information so that it can be used as reliable "safe" information? I imagine this will even out when the prices do fall, the VREF number will lag initially but since it didn't take into account ALL of the spike it will be fairly representative.


Cody, how does stale data create safety, and how is that relevant to buying anything?


Not state data, takes out the spikes. If a certain aircraft has a "temporary" value of $400k for a short period of time just because someone buys it @ $400k doesn't mean its a good value. VREF seems to have a dual purpose, protecting banks and advising buyers.

Wouldn't you agree a conservative approach to purchasing an aircraft would be to not pay more than VREF?

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