Are all those Barons, Dukes, Cessna, Pipers all about to see their value drop to their weight in beer cans?

Well, if they were to suddenly drop radically in value, then it would mean that another aircraft has arrived that has capabilities that will transform the private aviation industry as we have known it for the last 50 years.

So what would those transformative performances look like?

How about this:

1) Cruise speed 285Kts
2) Cruise altitude 25,000 ft (Pressurized)
3) Cruise consumption 7 US gals per hour (Diesel or Jet A1)
4) Range 5,000+ nm
5) State of the art glass cockpit
6) Seating 4 through 6

Would such an aircraft give you pause for thought about the economic viability of what you fly today?

Now transformation of an industry does not usually happen overnight but rather occurs because developments in a variety of seemingly independent technologies can now be innovatively bundled and create a "giant leap forward" in performance / price ratios.

The early bundling of technologies tends to first occur on the margins, draws much sceptiscm and attracts only a few early adopters / enthusiasts. However as the basic innovations are tinkered with and improved upon (and Americans are the worlds greatest tinkerers and improvers) then market acceptance grows rapidly.

So is there any evidence of such innovative bundling in the general aviation industry to produce transformative performances? Perhaps. Check out the Raptor (flying in 24 months) on the following link and lets hear your opinion - how much will your Beechcraft/Cessna/Piper be worth in 5 years time?

http://www.raptor-aircraft.com/pricing.html

Jonathan

So where can we see one?

I suspect we'll never see on fly in our life times.

Are they taking deposits on positions for a 24 month delivery?

Dunno about that one, but I've been wanting this one. They had a full sized model test flight in 1967.

http://moller.com/dev/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moller_M400_Skycar

Dan

Of course it would. It would also be an engineering miracle...

47 mpg isn't even achievable in a luxury road car that seats 4-6.

No one needs 5000+nm range. That's longer than Hawaii to JFK. No one wants to fly that at 230kts...

That's 21.75 hours at long-range cruise speed, so probably close to 22 hours with the climb. Who wants to contemplate sitting in their seat for that long, without a lav in the cabin? I can see the "need" for 2000nm range in an airplane this slow, but anything more than that seems fairly pointless.

"The Raptor Diesel will be powered by a 250hp modern diesel engine. It will be the same one used on the Hybrid model. This engine is an automotiove conversion that is yet to be done..."

and, I might add, may never be done. After all, if they can't use spell check, how smart are they???

I have spoken to one of their executives (Berni Breen) and they hope to have it flying in 18 to 24 months. Nevertheless a good question - they are preparing a cabin mock-up well before then but I am not sure where or when they will be making the mock up public. Try contacting Berni Breen who is their front man - bbreen@cableone.net

I understand that to be case. Clearly this is early days of a start-up - the question is (which I do not have the engineering background to answer - hence my post here) do the projected numbers (which would be truly transformative) fall anywhere near what is possible? They may be overblown but if they were 50% off in terms of economy they would still be transformative of the performance / cost ratio as compared with what we have grown to accept as normal over the last 50 years?

I think Jim Bede would hesitate to claim those performance figures...

There was a partial full size fuselage and some models at OSH in the innovations building. Mostly a carbon fiber shell.

This basically looks like a scam. I would not touch it with a ten foot pole.

In Aviation???

Say it ain't so!

I was looking really hard for Jim's name as I read that BS . . .

Oh...My...God. This is the stupidest thing I have ever seen. Anyone who wants to "invest" in this should be declared incompetent and have a conservator handle their affairs.

Why would an airplane that looks exactly like a Velocity go 100kts faster on 50 less horsepower? We used to call it "creative writing class".

Greg